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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly becomes grim resignation: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and another blackout.

Persistent Threats

Not long after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.

Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on sustained allied backing.