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A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Not Ready

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Dialogue

Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."